Sub:- (i)- After Uri as if India with tail-between-legs was not enough, bombshell comes from China (ii)- Open support by China of Pakistan and its Kashmir cause has fundamentally changed geo-politics of SAARC (iii)- India should assure China on CPEC otherwise will face most humiliating defeat / partition (iv)- Now India is left with only one option, to take PoJK even under threat of nukes (v)- As far Baluchistan etc India should ensure their human rights through proper HR mechanism
--- After attack, allegedly by Pakistan sponsored terrorists, at Army-camp at Uri in J&K on September, 18 (in which 20 soldier were killed and equally injured) India (including its government) started talking about punishing Pakistan militarily in a jingoistic manner for 3-4 days. But then India saw that Pakistan was more interested in war than India for the simple reason that then Pakistan could play nuclear card to constrain world-community to find solution of Kashmir problem (especially in view of on-going unrest in Kashmir) so that Indo-Pak hostilities can be eliminated forever.
Hence India went with tail-between-legs and stopped talking about military means to punish Pakistan and started talking about diplomatic and economic measures to teach Pakistan a lesson. But then as if this pusillanimity of India was not enough that suddenly on Saturday bombshell came from China which is a game changer and if India does not go for immediate retrieve of PoJK militarily even under threat of nukes then India will lose entire J&K to Pakistan and some more territories to China as explained below:-
(1)- As per report on September, 24 in a leading English newspaper of Pakistan, in the wake of rising tensions at borders with India, China (through Consul General of China in Lahore Yu Boren) has assured in unequivocal terms its support in case of any foreign aggression and also supported Pakistan’s stance on the Kashmir dispute, according to a press release issued by the Punjab Chief Minister Office. China reportedly further said – “[We’re and will be siding with Pakistan on Kashmir issue. There is no justification for atrocities on unarmed Kashmiris in India held Kashmir and the Kashmir dispute should be solved in accordance with aspirations of the Kashmiris. Referring to the support Beijing has been extending to Islamabad at all international forums, the diplomat reportedly said his country would continue supporting Pakistan through thick and thin]”. Yu reportedly discussed with the chief minister the situation developing in held Kashmir and the progress being made on various projects under CPEC a portion of which involves a part of the disputed region.
(2)- After said declaration of China about support to Pakistan the way PM Modi (in his public speech on Saturday in Kerala) appealed to the people of Pakistan to discipline government and military of Pakistan (especially when entire India was expecting tough response from Modi against the military and terrorists of Pakistan) every perspicacious political observe across the world knew it is unmistakable sign of acceptance of defeat by PM Modi even before war (or military operation in any form) has even started against Pakistan. This is not surprising. As I mentioned at http://www.pakistanchristianpost.com/detail.php?articleid=2806 China is offended the way India has been trying to harm the interest of China regarding ‘China Pakistan Economic Corridor’ (CPEC), but China will be offended so deeply that it will go to the extent of providing open support to Pakistan and to its Kashmir cause, was not known.
(3)- This of-course has brought Modi on ground who without understanding basic economic interests of the countries and without giving any importance to geo-political consideration (like former PM Nehru who offended many powerful countries through lecturing the world about non-alignment movement) was behaving like a proverbial bull in the China shop. How Nehru brought most humiliating defeat to India in 1962 Indo-Sino war which ultimately brought Nehru on ground and even broke him completely (politically) is well documented history and needs no repetition. But if PM Modi does not do course correction then India may again face much more humiliating defeat at the hands of Sino-Pak military alliance because:-
(i)- In addition to other military factors which are heavily in favor of Sino-Pak formidable military alliance vis-a-vis India (which any one can tell about) one more factor will be a big problem and liability for India. In utter disregard to secularism Hindu majority India did not retrieve Muslim PoJK and instead of thus solving Kashmir problem left the people of J&K (especially Kashmiri Muslims) at the mercy of hundreds of thousands of military with AFSPA, SPA etc. As per media in addition to military at border and LOC all over India about three to five hundred thousand military is in J&K (mainly in Kashmir valley) which is a major part of ‘spare Indian military’ which is meant to be moved from one place to other as per requirement of the war.
(ii)- But with China joining hands with Pakistan this spare military in valley can without much difficulty be trapped from three sides and de-mobilized (by cutting its access roads, supply of military necessities, food etc especially in a hilly terrain) by Sino-Pak military alliance. This will incapacitate India to send military at various points where ever needed all along border / LOC with China and Pakistan [in a war during which Pakistan will try to take Muslim Kashmir if not remaining J&K and China will beneficially adjust its border / LOC with India and may even try to take its claimed territory of Arunachal Pradesh).
(4)- Even if India tries to avoid Indo-Pak war it cannot. India should understand that now with said Chinese support to Pakistan on Kashmir, Pakistan (through Jihadis) with renewed vigor will prolong Kashmir unrest (going-on for last two and half months) and will also carry-out more terrorist attacks in J&K in order to provoke India to go for some military action against Pakistan so that it can precipitate and internationalize Kashmir issue though Indo-Pak war.
(5)- Therefore India should be pragmatic and mend its way and should assure China about progress of CPEC undisturbed from Indian side in the interest of breaking said Sino-Pak military alliance. India should further declare openly that now India will take PoJK militarily even by giving threat of nukes if needed (in order to constrain world-community to let India take PoJK peacefully).
(6)- As far human rights violation in Baluchistan or in any other part of Pakistan or in any other country, the right approach is to move UN for replacing Optional Protocol OP-1 by Mandatory Protocol MP-1 of ICCPR and by establishing a mechanism for enforcing human rights even on the petition of an aggrieved citizen of member erring country especially when remedy in courts and HR Commissions of erring countries are exhausted [If UN does not do it then India can get it done through SAARC].
Therefore India and its government should realize in what difficult situation it has landed itself into by unnecessarily offending China on CPEC and should do course correction as mentioned above so that the most humiliating imminent scenario for India (including further dismemberment of India by Pakistan) can be avoided.
Hem Raj Jain
(Author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’)