The long awaited assault by forces from the African Union (AMISOM) and Somali Nation Army (SNA) against the Islamist al-Shabaab (al-Shabab) in Kismayo is firmly underway. Initial reports are claiming that the SNA and mainly Kenyan troops have made important gains and appear to be in full control of vital parts of Kismayo. If it does materialize that al-Shabaab have been forced out completely, then an area of importance will be lost to this Islamist organization. Long-term predictions are extremely complex because just like the Taliban in Afghanistan, then al-Shabaab may be melting away in order to fight on another day. The reason for this is to preserve the “Islamist agenda” by adapting to the prevailing conditions. After all, al-Shabaab isn’t a match to fight the Kenyan troops openly alongside the assistance of the SNA and other elements connected with AMISOM. Yet al-Shabaab is more at home fighting in street battles, inflicting terrorist attacks on their enemies, suicide attacks and other similar areas. A spokesman for the military forces of Kenya, Colonel Cyrus Oguna, commented that “It was an amphibious assault, delicate and … meticulously planned…We have so far encountered minimum resistance.” Disputes within the Islamist agenda in Somalia also appear to have played into the hands of the SNA and Kenyan troops. It remains largely unknown if international sponsors have been pressurized to stop channeling funds to al-Shabaab, or if the internal convulsions are based on a genuine power shift within the body politic of Somalia? However, it is clear that outside nations like Kenya desire to crush this regional menace in order to destabilize this part of Africa. Al-Shabaab is known for terrorism, killing Muslim converts to Christianity in barbaric ways, enforcing rough justice based on Sharia Islamic law, shackling women and implementing many draconian policies. On top of this, it is abundantly clear that the political ambitions of this terrorist organization have repulsed many citizens of this country. This applies to stoning people to death, killing apostates, enforcing strict laws, whipping women and other draconian realities. The commander of the forces belonging to the African Union is appealing to al-Shabaab to lay down their military arms and surrender. Andrew Gutti stated “We urge all fighters remaining in Kismayo to lay down their arms.” Currently the real situation is unknown but if Kismayo falls then clearly central forces in Somalia will be boosted. However, the SNA and Kenyan troops will be edgy for the next few days and weeks because you may have incursions into Kismayo by Islamists. Likewise, terrorist attacks may occur and rivals within Kismayo may start to clash over controlling important areas. Therefore, much remains up in the air because in Afghanistan it is clear that the Taliban melted away quickly but in time this movement re-emerged. Kismayo could become the beginning of the end of al-Shabaab – or alternatively it could become the start of a new battleground which also reaches northern Kenya? At the same time, rival militias may try to fill the vacuum and this could entail further chaos. leejay@hotmail.com http://moderntokyotimes.com