Advantage Putin with Pelosi in Taiwan. USA may lose cold war - II if doesn’t support independent Taiwan with new liberal global order. By Hem Raj Jain


The naive people all over the world who either hate China or love the West led by the USA are dancing on the news that US-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has landed in Taiwan despite the Chinese threat to not allow it even by using military force by China. These myopic people don’t understand that it has given immense leverage to Russian President Putin (already engaged in the Ukraine war) and if the USA doesn’t work for independent Taiwan with new global order for liberal free world then the West led by the USA is likely to lose the cold war - II in more than half of the world’s population, as mentioned below:-

(1)- In the on-going cold war - II between ‘liberal Western democracy’ against ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy’ China (with the support of Russia) always had an advantage if Russia-China confines their ambitions on half of the world which is geographically contiguous and will easily come under the umbrella of ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy’ [The contiguous region from Russia, Ukraine Iran to the East including Central Asia, SAARC and Pacific countries (which is the Eastern-bloc) involves more than half of the population of the world].

(2)- China is much more dependent economically on the West led by the USA than Russia hence China would have certainly avoided directed confrontation with the West but the landing of Pelosi in Taiwan has changed the entire strategic military scenario of this Eastern-bloc especially because now (after Pelosi landing in Taiwan) China will have to do something spectacular, militarily (also due to political stakes of XI Jinping in election year). Here comes the role of Putin. If Russia succeeds in casting a military treaty between (to start with) Russia, China, North Korea and Iran for guaranteeing Taiwan with China and Russian demanded part of Ukraine with Russia and territorial integrity & sovereignty of Iran and North Korea then whatever people may say about the supreme Power of the West led by the USA and whatever may happen in the initial phase of the all-out war between Western and Eastern-bloc but ultimately the West led by the USA would end-up giving entire Eastern-block (politically & militarily) to the alliance of Russia, China etc for the simple reason that geography is half the politics. 

(3)- As far as Muslim countries of this Eastern-bloc are concerned they will certainly prefer to go with Russia-China alliance than with with West led by the USA. If some naive people think that India, the largest democracy of the world of 1.4 billion people, will oppose the takeover of this Eastern-bloc by the alliance of Russia, China etc then they don’t know anything about India. 

(4)- In view of the spectacular economic progress of China, many people in economically humble India have started thinking that Western democracy doesn’t suit the people of Asia (as claimed by China). In India about two third of its population is dependent fully or partly on farm income and hundreds of thousand of farmers have committed suicide due to financial constraints. Hence notwithstanding the propaganda of the government of India (that India has become an economic power) what is the real condition of poor India is known to every perspicacious person.

(5)- There is one more reason that India will easily adopt ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy’. The present BJP government of 'Hindutva' forces has somehow convinced itself that in the present western democratic political model it can’t make India an economic & military super power. Hence the BJP led India would gladly adopt authoritarian Chinese democracy by merely replacing RSS, which is controlling the BJP (in the palace of Chinese Communist party) in the more or less political model presently being practiced in China.

(6)- India will be willing to adopt this authoritarian model supported by the Russia - China alliance as it will also eliminate India’s problem with Pakistan and China (which the Russia-China alliance will ensure). Because these two problems  have been unnecessarily taking huge amounts of time, money and other resources of India especially in view of the fact that the West led by the USA (through the UN or otherwise) has not been able to solve these two border problems of India though the West could have easily solved these by this time. 

(7)- This raises an important question. Can the West led by the USA still do something to frustrate Putin in achieving the Eastern-block under ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy supported by the military alliance of Russia, China etc ? Fortunately the answer is yes if the USA takes the lead for the following:-

(i)- The USA should recognize the independence of Taiwan (by discarding one China policy).  

(ii)- The USA should launch a new global forum / organization for ‘the rule-based global order of liberal secular democracies’ (which will also spare the USA & Taiwan from taking practically the entire burden of fighting a likely all-out war against China supported by Russia etc). This time the USA should not commit the mistake of keeping veto rights to some members in a new global organization (as it did when it sponsored the UN) because veto wielding countries like China & Russia have been creating problems for the USA in the UN. Hence this new global liberal organization should be participatory where members should have voting rights commensurate with their contribution of men (including military), money, material (including military) and their record of human rights.

Therefore instead of dancing over Pelosi landing in Taiwan, the pro-West / USA people should convince the USA to take the lead to establish said new global order of liberal democracies otherwise the military alliance of Russia, China etc will be able to establish  authoritarian regimes in the Eastern block with more than half of the world’s population.

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